Executive Summary
- The RWA tokenization market grew from $6 billion in 2022 to $35 billion within the first ten months of 2025, showing growth exceeding 400%.
- Winners will be the institutions that adopt early and position themselves strategically.
- The tokenization market size is expected to reach $30 trillion by 2034. ·
- 4–6% of institutional portfolios are expected to be tokenized in the near term. ·
- Main risks: re-centralization on private networks and risk transfer in on-chain systems. ·
- Winners will be the institutions that adopt the transformation early and position themselves strategically.
- Introduction: The Age of Smart Assets
The evolution of financial value has followed an uninterrupted path from physical metals to digital codes for centuries. Today, we are witnessing the newest phase of this path: the tokenization of assets. Tokenization is no longer just a technical innovation; it has become a paradigm that redefines the infrastructure of ownership, trust, and value transfer. The building block of this new infrastructure is strategy as much as software.
- Trend: The Rise of Tokenization
Tokenization is moving from the back alleys of finance to its center. The Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization market, which was at $6 billion in 2022, reached to USD 35 billion in 2025, recording growth exceeding 400%. Forecasts indicate that this figure could expand to $30 trillion by 2034.
This acceleration cannot be explained by solely by individual investment. Institutional strategies are shifting direction. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink emphasizes the inevitability of the process by saying, “Every financial asset will be tokenized. It’s no longer a question of ‘if,’ but ‘when.’ And that time is now.” JPMorgan has also proven how tokenization can be integrated into financial infrastructure: Through JPM Coin, on-chain money transfers and securities settlement have been incorporated into daily operations.
This trend shows that tokenization is no longer a technology argument, but the main axis of economic strategy.
- Risk: Centralization of Power and Transformation of Risks
The efficiency, speed, and transparency gained from tokenization bring new questions along with them. First, the centralization of power. Most of the existing infrastructures operate on private (permissioned) networks. This could mean that control of the system is once again concentrated in the hands of a few institutions. In this form, the innovation carries the risk of being a sophisticated control mechanism rather than inclusive.
Second, the change in the nature of risks. As European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned, “Technology does not eliminate risks; it reshapes them.” Liquidity, market, credit, and operational risks do not disappear; they are transferred to the on-chain asset system. This means a new search for balance for regulators. Together, these factors indicate that tokenization is maturing—and with it comes an urgent need for new governance standards, regulatory clarity, and transparency. Smart contract errors, oracle security, and off-chain data dependency also expand the risk matrix.
The listed risks are indicators that tokenization is beginning to mature and now requires new standards in regulation, governance, and transparency.
- Direction: Those Who Position Themselves Correctly Will Win
The fundamental question is no longer “Will tokenization happen?” but “Who will position themselves where in this new order?” According to EY’s 2024 report, 4 to 6% of global institutional portfolios are expected to be tokenized in the short term. This means not only financial products but also business models will be redesigned.
Institutions like JPMorgan, BlackRock, UBS, and Franklin Templeton are building tokenization-based infrastructures across various lines, from payments to fund management. Those leading this period will no longer be technology developers, but institutions that can blend strategy with financial structure.
The new financial order is more than a technology wave: it is a turning point where economic power, liquidity, and ownership are redefined. As in every era, the winners will not be those who follow the change, but those who design it early.
Next Section: Are Laws and Regulations an Obstacle or an Advantage?
In this first article of the series, we covered the trends, risks, and direction of tokenization. The next section will focus on the most critical link in this architecture, namely regulation.
The main question is: Is regulation an obstacle in front of the new economy, or a competitive advantage for sustainable growth?
See you in the next article.
Engin Çağlar
Strategy Advisor, Old School GmbH
Zug-Switzerland
